Burton Albion vs Luton: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Pirelli Stadium, Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab model makes Luton the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Burton Albion. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burton Albion vs Luton?
Luton starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,941 vs 1,794).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burton Albion have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Luton have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leicester(away) | 2-1 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stevenage(home) | 1-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackburn(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 2-2 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Reading(away) | 4-3 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gillingham(away) | 3-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Kholood(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Burton Albion win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Luton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Luton 1-1 Burton Albion | League One |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Burton Albion 0-3 Luton | League One |
| Apr 27, 2019 | Burton Albion 2-1 Luton | League One |
| Dec 22, 2018 | Luton 2-0 Burton Albion | League One |
| Apr 11, 2015 | Luton 0-1 Burton Albion | League Two |
| Nov 22, 2014 | Burton Albion 1-0 Luton | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Luton vs Burton Albion on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Burton Albion score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Luton score 2.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 0.8 | 1.0 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Luton | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burton Albion sit 7th in League One (4 points from 2 matches) and Luton sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Luton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Burton Albion | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burton Albion vs Luton?
- The Footlab model makes Luton the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Burton Albion.
- Where and when is Burton Albion vs Luton played?
- Burton Albion vs Luton is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Pirelli Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.