Burton Albion vs Luton: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Pirelli Stadium, Burton-upon-Trent, Staffordshire
The Footlab AI model makes Luton the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Burton Albion. The most likely score is 1-1. If Luton wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,593 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Burton Albion vs Luton?
Luton starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,981 vs 1,837).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Burton Albion vs Luton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Burton Albion
3-4-2-1- 19M. Dennis
- 17R. Borges Rodrigues
- 4K. Chauke
- 8C. Webster
- 14W. Collar
- 3J. Armer
- 6T. Sibbick
- 16C. Tilt
- 26F. Delap
- 12G. Evans
- 34C. Addai
Luton
4-1-4-1- 21N. Wells
- 8L. Walsh
- 18J. Clark
- 45K. Palmer
- 10J. Donley
- 17T. Mendel-Idowu
- 2H. Odoffin
- 5M. Andersen
- 6G. Johnston
- 3K. Naismith
- 1J. Shea
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 05:42 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Burton Albion have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Luton have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Peterborough(away) | 2-2 | League One |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 0-1 | League One |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-0 | EFL Trophy |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Huddersfield(home) | 1-3 | League One |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 1-0 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Milton Keynes Dons(away) | 1-2 | League One |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wycombe(away) | 4-1 | League One |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 1-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Ipswich Town U21(home) | 6-0 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Bradford(home) | 0-1 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Burton Albion wins, 1 draw, 2 Luton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Luton 1-1 Burton Albion | League One |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Burton Albion 0-3 Luton | League One |
| Apr 27, 2019 | Burton Albion 2-1 Luton | League One |
| Dec 22, 2018 | Luton 2-0 Burton Albion | League One |
| Apr 11, 2015 | Luton 0-1 Burton Albion | League Two |
| Nov 22, 2014 | Burton Albion 1-0 Luton | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Luton vs Burton Albion on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Burton Albion score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Luton score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton Albion | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Luton | 1.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Burton Albion sit 9th in League One (13 points from 11 matches) and Luton sit 14th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Burton Albion | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 13 |
| 14 | Luton | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 11 |
A question about Burton Albion vs Luton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Burton Albion vs Luton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Luton the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Burton Albion.
- Where and when is Burton Albion vs Luton played?
- Burton Albion vs Luton is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Pirelli Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.