Caen vs Thionville Lusitanos: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Matchday 18Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade Michel d'Ornano, Caen
The Footlab AI model makes Caen the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Thionville Lusitanos. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caen wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,632 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caen vs Thionville Lusitanos?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Caen (1,875) and Thionville Lusitanos (1,856).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caen vs Thionville Lusitanos
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caen
4-3-3- 9F. El Khoumisti
- 20Keelyan Portut
- 10I. Botella
- 25Z. Bagbema
- 28H. Saivet
- 18J. Bomo
- 23L. Carole
- 12D. Appiah
- 4S. Mbaka
- 3D. Bolumbu
- 16Y. Clémentia
Thionville Lusitanos
4-4-2- 9M. Bouhmidi
- 7K. Tubio
- 26E. Montet
- 8S. Kilic
- 20B. Diarra
- 22J. Moustaid
- 6M. Aljic
- 5J. Atangana
- 23S. Bouzar
- 17D. Luvualu
- 40W. Bedfian
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 02:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caen have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Thionville Lusitanos have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Versailles(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 15, 2026 | La Roche VF(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Fleury 91(away) | 2-3 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Rouen(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Cannes(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Amiens(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Versailles(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Le Puy Foot(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | La Roche VF(home) | 1-2 | Ligue 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Caen wins, 0 draws, 1 Thionville Lusitanos win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos 4-3 Caen | Ligue 3 |
Last archived meeting: Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen on Aug 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caen score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Thionville Lusitanos score 1.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caen | 2.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Thionville Lusitanos | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caen sit 3rd in Ligue 3 (22 points from 12 matches) and Thionville Lusitanos sit 11th (16 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Caen | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 15 | 22 |
| 11 | Thionville Lusitanos | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 16 |
A question about Caen vs Thionville Lusitanos?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caen vs Thionville Lusitanos?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caen the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Thionville Lusitanos.
- Where and when is Caen vs Thionville Lusitanos played?
- Caen vs Thionville Lusitanos is played on January 30, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade Michel d'Ornano, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.