Match

Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano: prediction and stats

Sergipano - 2Semi-finalsKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)

CarmópolisFrei Paulistano

The Footlab AI model makes Frei Paulistano the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Carmópolis. The most likely score is 1-1. If Frei Paulistano wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,491 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano?

A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Carmópolis (1,452) and Frei Paulistano (1,538).

32%25%43%
Carmópolis winDrawFrei Paulistano win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Carmópolis

4-3-3
  1. SSorriso
  2. AAllan Santos
  3. WWalisson
  1. KKennidy
  2. JJosé Éverton
  3. PPedro Victor Cardoso Sobral
  1. DDaniel Santos
  2. DDudu Paraíba
  3. TThierry
  4. FFelipe
  1. BBruno Mateus

Frei Paulistano

4-3-3
  1. AAcássio
  2. TTiquinho
  3. HHudson
  1. MMatheus
  2. HHenrique Silva
  3. WWillian
  1. RRaúl Rocha
  2. PPedrinho
  3. DDaniel Santos
  4. JJorge
  1. EElvis

Computed on November 12, 2026 at 03:45 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Carmópolis have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Frei Paulistano have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Carmópolis
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 10, 2026Olímpico SE(home)2-2Sergipano - 2
Nov 7, 2026Socorrense(away)0-0Sergipano - 2
Nov 3, 2026Caninde(home)3-0Sergipano - 2
Oct 31, 2026América de Pedrinhas(home)8-0Sergipano - 2
Oct 28, 2026Flamengo SE(away)1-1Sergipano - 2
Frei Paulistano
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026Independente Simão Dias(away)6-1Sergipano - 2
Nov 4, 2026Estanciano(away)2-0Sergipano - 2
Nov 1, 2026Barra SE(home)5-0Sergipano - 2
Oct 29, 2026Maruinense(away)1-2Sergipano - 2
Nov 1, 2025Flamengo SE(away)4-0Sergipano - 2

How many goals should we expect?

Carmópolis score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Frei Paulistano score 2.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Carmópolis1.61.3410/159/15
Frei Paulistano2.31.066/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Carmópolis sit 2nd in Sergipano - 2 (9 points from 5 matches) and Frei Paulistano sit 1st (12 points from 5 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Frei Paulistano540117312
2Carmópolis52301439

A question about Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano?

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano?
The Footlab AI model makes Frei Paulistano the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Carmópolis.
Where and when is Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano played?
Carmópolis vs Frei Paulistano is played on November 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC), in the Sergipano - 2.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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