Maruinense vs Caninde: prediction and stats
Sergipano - 2Semi-finalsKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Governador Antônio Carlos Valadares, Maruim, Sergipe
The Footlab AI model makes Caninde the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Maruinense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caninde wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,500 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maruinense vs Caninde?
Caninde starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,453 vs 1,333).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maruinense vs Caninde
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maruinense
4-3-3- GGabriel Andrade
- AAlex Santos Araújo
- AAlex Pernambucano
- MMatheus Felipe de Jesus Alves Lima
- LLuis Fagner da Silva Conceição
- HHebert Henrique de Santana
- EEricon Natan Francisco Guimaraes Souza
- AAdriano Galvão de Melo Júnior
- RRonaldo dos Santos Sousa
- JJhonata Aparecido Nascimento Santos
- WWillian dos Santos Gomes
Caninde
Not enough data to predict the Caninde lineup.
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 03:58 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maruinense have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Caninde have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2026 | Independente Simão Dias(home) | 1-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Socorro Sport(home) | 3-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Estanciano(away) | 0-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Frei Paulistano(home) | 2-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 9, 2024 | Socorro Sport(away) | 3-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026 | Socorrense(home) | 2-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Flamengo SE(away) | 1-0 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Nov 3, 2026 | Carmópolis(away) | 0-3 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Olímpico SE(home) | 3-3 | Sergipano - 2 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | América de Pedrinhas(away) | 6-1 | Sergipano - 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Maruinense score 0.8 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caninde score 1.9 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maruinense | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Caninde | 1.9 | 2.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maruinense sit 2nd in Sergipano - 2 (10 points from 5 matches) and Caninde sit 1st (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caninde | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 10 |
| 2 | Maruinense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 10 |
A question about Maruinense vs Caninde?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maruinense vs Caninde?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caninde the favourite at 44%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Maruinense.
- Where and when is Maruinense vs Caninde played?
- Maruinense vs Caninde is played on November 14, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Governador Antônio Carlos Valadares, in the Sergipano - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.