Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada: prediction and stats
1a DivisióRegular Season - 11Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Casa de Portugal the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Penya Encarnada. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada?
Penya Encarnada starts as the favourite with a 193-point Elo edge (1,452 vs 1,260).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 2 matches in all competitions, Casa de Portugal have 0 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Penya Encarnada have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | Inter Club d'Escaldes(home) | 1-4 | Copa Constitució |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Carroi(away) | 0-0 | Copa Constitució |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes(away) | 0-2 | 1a Divisió |
| May 10, 2026 | Ranger's(home) | 1-2 | 1a Divisió |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ordino(away) | 1-0 | 1a Divisió |
| Apr 18, 2026 | UE Santa Coloma(home) | 0-2 | 1a Divisió |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Esperança d'Andorra(away) | 1-0 | 1a Divisió |
How many goals should we expect?
Casa de Portugal score 0.5 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 2; Penya Encarnada score 0.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa de Portugal | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1 | 1/2 | 1/2 |
| Penya Encarnada | 0.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 3/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 2 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penya Encarnada | 24 | 7 | 3 | 14 | 19 | 41 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada?
- The Footlab model makes Casa de Portugal the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Penya Encarnada.
- Where and when is Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada played?
- Casa de Portugal vs Penya Encarnada is played on December 5, 2026 at 07:30 PM (UTC), in the 1a Divisió.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.