Castro Daire vs Machico: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 11Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Complexo Desportivo Castro Daire, Castro Daire
The Footlab AI model makes Machico the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Castro Daire. The most likely score is 1-1. If Machico wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castro Daire vs Machico?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Castro Daire (1,825) and Machico (1,908).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castro Daire vs Machico
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castro Daire
4-3-3- MMarcel
- JJoão Rianço
- PPaulo Rodrigues
- TTiago Almeida
- FFred Lopes
- DDiogo
- FFilipe Soares
- PPica
- TTomás César
- RRui Pinto
- TTomás Correia
Machico
Not enough data to predict the Machico lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 05:22 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castro Daire have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Machico have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Salgueiros(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Portimonense(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Beira-Mar(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sousense(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ovarense(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Florgrade(home) | 4-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Salgueiros(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Camacha(home) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Beira-Mar(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Castro Daire wins, 1 draw, 1 Machico win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2023 | Castro Daire 0-1 Machico | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Machico 2-2 Castro Daire | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
Last archived meeting: Castro Daire vs Machico on Jan 15, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Castro Daire score 1.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Machico score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro Daire | 1.0 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Machico | 1.4 | 0.7 | 9 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castro Daire sit 5th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (7 points from 4 matches) and Machico sit 2nd (11 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Machico | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Castro Daire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
A question about Castro Daire vs Machico?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castro Daire vs Machico?
- The Footlab AI model makes Machico the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Castro Daire.
- Where and when is Castro Daire vs Machico played?
- Castro Daire vs Machico is played on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Complexo Desportivo Castro Daire, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.