Castro vs Sámano: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Group 3 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo Riomar, Castro Urdiales
The Footlab AI model makes Castro the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Sámano. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castro wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Castro vs Sámano?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Castro (1,608) and Sámano (1,639).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Castro vs Sámano
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Castro
Not enough data to predict the Castro lineup.
Sámano
4-3-3- 9A. Castillo Marcilla
- 11A. Berzosa
- 23J. Ibanez
- 6D. Aguirre
- 10A. Lambea
- 14M. Gilete
- 2A. Abad
- 22L. Gomez
- 4J. Lopez
- LLuis Gómez
- 1G. Masach
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:54 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Castro have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Sámano have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atlético Albericia(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Tropezón(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Revilla(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Solares(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Velarde(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Atlético Mineros(away) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Cayón(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guarnizo(home) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Vimenor(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Castro wins, 2 draws, 1 Sámano win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2025 | Sámano 1-0 Castro | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Castro 0-0 Sámano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Sámano 0-2 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Castro 1-0 Sámano | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Sámano 0-1 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
| Feb 11, 2023 | Sámano 2-2 Castro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Castro score 1.0 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Sámano score 1.3 and concede 2.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Castro | 1.0 | 1.6 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Sámano | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Castro sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 (5 points from 6 matches) and Sámano sit 4th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sámano | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 11 |
| 13 | Castro | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
A question about Castro vs Sámano?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Castro vs Sámano?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castro the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Sámano.
- Where and when is Castro vs Sámano played?
- Castro vs Sámano is played on November 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Riomar, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.