CastrumFavara vs Licata: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone IGroup I - 3Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale Giovanni Bruccoleri, Favara
The Footlab model makes CastrumFavara the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Licata. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CastrumFavara vs Licata?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate CastrumFavara (1,680) and Licata (1,581).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CastrumFavara have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Licata have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Enna(home) | 2-2 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Paternò(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Gela(home) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 12, 2026 | AC Palermo(away) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Acireale(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | CastrumFavara(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Relegation - Play-offs |
| May 4, 2025 | Nissa(away) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Pompei(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Sambiase(away) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone I |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Paternò(home) | 2-3 | Serie D - Girone I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 CastrumFavara win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Licata win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | CastrumFavara 2-0 Licata | Serie D - Relegation - Play-offs |
| Jan 26, 2025 | CastrumFavara 0-0 Licata | Serie D - Girone I |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Licata 2-1 CastrumFavara | Serie D - Girone I |
Last archived meeting: CastrumFavara vs Licata on May 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
CastrumFavara score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Licata score 0.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CastrumFavara | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Licata | 0.9 | 1.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | CastrumFavara | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 38 | 47 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CastrumFavara vs Licata?
- The Footlab model makes CastrumFavara the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 21% for Licata.
- Where and when is CastrumFavara vs Licata played?
- CastrumFavara vs Licata is played on September 16, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale Giovanni Bruccoleri, in the Serie D - Girone I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.