Celaya vs Tigres de Alica: prediction and stats
Primera PremierRegular Season - 11Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés, Celaya
The Footlab AI model makes Celaya the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Tigres de Alica. The most likely score is 1-1. If Celaya wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Celaya vs Tigres de Alica?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Celaya (1,969) and Tigres de Alica (1,948).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Celaya vs Tigres de Alica
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Celaya
Not enough data to predict the Celaya lineup.
Tigres de Alica
Not enough data to predict the Tigres de Alica lineup.
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 08:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Celaya have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Tigres de Alica have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Jaguares de Chiapas(home) | 0-1 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Deportiva Venados(away) | 2-2 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Montañeses(home) | 2-1 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Chapulineros(away) | 1-1 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Tapachula(home) | 2-0 | Primera Premier |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | H2O Purepechas(home) | 1-0 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Tritons Vallarta(home) | 1-1 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lobos ULMX(home) | 1-1 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Irapuato(away) | 1-2 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Los Cabos United(away) | 2-1 | Primera Premier |
How many goals should we expect?
Celaya score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Tigres de Alica score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celaya | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Tigres de Alica | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Celaya sit 2nd in Primera Premier (13 points from 5 matches) and Tigres de Alica sit 5th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Celaya | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Tigres de Alica | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 11 |
A question about Celaya vs Tigres de Alica?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Celaya vs Tigres de Alica?
- The Footlab AI model makes Celaya the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 25% for Tigres de Alica.
- Where and when is Celaya vs Tigres de Alica played?
- Celaya vs Tigres de Alica is played on November 8, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés, in the Primera Premier.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 7, 2026Racing de VeracruzvsIrapuato
- Nov 7, 2026Pioneros de CancúnvsReboceros La Piedad
- Nov 7, 2026Deportiva VenadosvsTritons Vallarta
- Nov 7, 2026TapachulavsZacatepec 1948
- Nov 8, 2026Jaguares de ChiapasvsH2O Purepechas
- Nov 8, 2026Inter Playa del CarmenvsLobos ULMX
- Nov 8, 2026MontañesesvsLos Cabos United
- Nov 10, 2026ChapulinerosvsCordobés