Cenicero vs Casalarreina: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Las Viñas, Cenicero
The Footlab model makes Cenicero the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Casalarreina. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cenicero vs Casalarreina?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Cenicero (1,527) and Casalarreina (1,624).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cenicero have 1 wins, 1 draws and 13 defeats; Casalarreina have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2022 | Varea(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 24, 2022 | Haro Deportivo(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 14, 2022 | Oyonesa(home) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Rapid de Murillo(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 3, 2022 | Calahorra II(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | La Calzada(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 4, 2025 | Autol(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Tedeón(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | River Ebro(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Vianés(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Cenicero win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Casalarreina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2022 | Cenicero 1-2 Casalarreina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 24, 2021 | Casalarreina 4-1 Cenicero | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
Last archived meeting: Cenicero vs Casalarreina on Mar 6, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Cenicero score 0.3 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Casalarreina score 1.3 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cenicero | 0.3 | 2.5 | 2 | 3/15 | 11/15 |
| Casalarreina | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cenicero vs Casalarreina?
- The Footlab model makes Cenicero the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Casalarreina.
- Where and when is Cenicero vs Casalarreina played?
- Cenicero vs Casalarreina is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Las Viñas, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.