Berceo vs Varea: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 16Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Isla, Logroño
The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Berceo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Varea wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Berceo vs Varea?
Varea starts as the favourite with a 142-point Elo edge (1,862 vs 1,721).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Berceo vs Varea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Berceo
Not enough data to predict the Berceo lineup.
Varea
Not enough data to predict the Varea lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 11:33 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Berceo have 9 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats; Varea have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | La Calzada(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | San Marcial(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cenicero(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | River Ebro(home) | 7-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Agoncillo(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Oyonesa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | La Calzada(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | San Marcial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Berceo wins, 2 draws, 4 Varea wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Varea 1-0 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Berceo 0-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Varea 2-2 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Berceo 0-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 20, 2024 | Varea 3-2 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Berceo 1-1 Varea | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Berceo score 2.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Varea score 0.8 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berceo | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Varea | 0.8 | 0.6 | 7 | 6/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Berceo sit 1st in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (15 points from 6 matches) and Varea sit 7th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berceo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 15 |
| 7 | Varea | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 10 |
A question about Berceo vs Varea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Berceo vs Varea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Varea the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Berceo.
- Where and when is Berceo vs Varea played?
- Berceo vs Varea is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Isla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.