Cetatea vs Progresul Mogosoaia: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 5Group 5 - 17Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Municipal, Turnu Măgurele
The Footlab AI model makes Cetatea the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Progresul Mogosoaia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Cetatea wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cetatea vs Progresul Mogosoaia?
On Elo ratings, Cetatea has 1,576 points and Progresul Mogosoaia 1,506.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Cetatea vs Progresul Mogosoaia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Cetatea
Not enough data to predict the Cetatea lineup.
Progresul Mogosoaia
Not enough data to predict the Progresul Mogosoaia lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:07 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cetatea have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Progresul Mogosoaia have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Oxigen Bucuresti(away) | 0-2 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | LPS HD Clinceni(home) | 2-2 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Progresul Mogosoaia(away) | 3-3 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Dinamo Bucureşti II(away) | 3-1 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Voluntari II(home) | 2-2 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | LPS HD Clinceni(home) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(away) | 1-1 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cetatea(home) | 3-3 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | Omega Sport(away) | 0-1 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dinamo Bucureşti II(home) | 0-3 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Cetatea wins, 1 draw, 0 Progresul Mogosoaia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 26, 2026 | Progresul Mogosoaia 3-3 Cetatea | Liga III - Serie 5 |
Last archived meeting: Progresul Mogosoaia vs Cetatea on Sep 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cetatea score 1.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Progresul Mogosoaia score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cetatea | 1.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Progresul Mogosoaia | 1.8 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cetatea sit 6th in Liga III - Serie 5 (9 points from 7 matches) and Progresul Mogosoaia sit 7th (9 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cetatea | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 9 |
| 7 | Progresul Mogosoaia | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
A question about Cetatea vs Progresul Mogosoaia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cetatea vs Progresul Mogosoaia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Cetatea the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Progresul Mogosoaia.
- Where and when is Cetatea vs Progresul Mogosoaia played?
- Cetatea vs Progresul Mogosoaia is played on December 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Municipal, in the Liga III - Serie 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.