Chateauroux vs Fréjus St-Raphaël: prediction and stats
National 2 - Group CGroup C - 13Kick-off on January 9, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Gaston Petit, Châteauroux
The Footlab AI model makes Chateauroux the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Fréjus St-Raphaël. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chateauroux wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chateauroux vs Fréjus St-Raphaël?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Chateauroux (1,705) and Fréjus St-Raphaël (1,727).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chateauroux vs Fréjus St-Raphaël
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chateauroux
4-3-3- 12J. Koembo
- 19L. Piquionne
- 27W. Boussaid
- 5P. Wade
- 21Y. Chahid
- 10R. Freitas
- 39M. Beneddine
- 6G. Kelo
- 4D. Diarra
- 28S. Mopila
- 16L. Lavallée
Fréjus St-Raphaël
Not enough data to predict the Fréjus St-Raphaël lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:22 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chateauroux have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Fréjus St-Raphaël have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Istres(away) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Limonest(home) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| Sep 5, 2026 | UF Touraine(away) | 1-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Hyères(home) | 0-1 | National 2 - Group C |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hauts Lyonnais(away) | 0-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Bourges Foot 18(away) | 1-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Chasselay MDA(home) | 2-4 | National 2 - Group C |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Toulon(away) | 1-3 | National 2 - Group C |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Andrézieux(home) | 2-0 | National 2 - Group C |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Nimes(away) | 0-3 | National 2 - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Chateauroux win, 0 draws, 1 Fréjus St-Raphaël win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2016 | Chateauroux 3-1 Fréjus St-Raphaël | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2015 | Fréjus St-Raphaël 1-0 Chateauroux | Ligue 3 |
Last archived meeting: Chateauroux vs Fréjus St-Raphaël on Jun 3, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Chateauroux score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Fréjus St-Raphaël score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateauroux | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Fréjus St-Raphaël | 1.0 | 1.7 | 5 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chateauroux sit 15th in National 2 - Group C (3 points from 5 matches) and Fréjus St-Raphaël sit 8th (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| 15 | Chateauroux | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
A question about Chateauroux vs Fréjus St-Raphaël?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chateauroux vs Fréjus St-Raphaël?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chateauroux the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Fréjus St-Raphaël.
- Where and when is Chateauroux vs Fréjus St-Raphaël played?
- Chateauroux vs Fréjus St-Raphaël is played on January 9, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Gaston Petit, in the National 2 - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.