Chernihiv vs UCSA: prediction and stats
Persha LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Yunist, Chernihiv
The Footlab model makes Chernihiv the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for UCSA. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chernihiv vs UCSA?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Chernihiv (1,599) and UCSA (1,604).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chernihiv have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; UCSA have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Polissya II(home) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Probiy Horodenka(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kulykiv(home) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Lokomotiv Kyiv(away) | 1-1 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Obolon'-Brovar(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kolos Kovalivka(home) | 0-3 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SK Poltava(away) | 0-0 | Persha Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Nyva Ternopil(home) | 1-0 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Oleksandria(home) | 4-4 | Persha Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Polissya II(away) | 2-2 | Persha Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Chernihiv win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 UCSA win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | UCSA 0-2 Chernihiv | Persha Liga |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Chernihiv 2-0 UCSA | Persha Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Chernihiv score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; UCSA score 1.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chernihiv | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| UCSA | 1.1 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chernihiv sit 10th in Persha Liga (4 points from 4 matches) and UCSA sit 6th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | UCSA | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 10 | Chernihiv | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chernihiv vs UCSA?
- The Footlab model makes Chernihiv the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for UCSA.
- Where and when is Chernihiv vs UCSA played?
- Chernihiv vs UCSA is played on April 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Yunist, in the Persha Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.