Chicago Fire II vs Philadelphia Union II: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)SeatGeek Stadium, Bridgeview, Illinois
The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire II the favourite at 57%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Philadelphia Union II. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chicago Fire II vs Philadelphia Union II?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Chicago Fire II (1,672) and Philadelphia Union II (1,671).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chicago Fire II have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Philadelphia Union II have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Inter Miami II(home) | 3-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Atlanta United II(away) | 1-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Orlando City II(home) | 2-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Toronto II(home) | 2-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Cincinnati II(home) | 7-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Connecticut FC(home) | 2-4 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 16, 2026 | New England II(away) | 4-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Cincinnati II(home) | 2-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 1, 2026 | New York City II(away) | 1-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Chattanooga(away) | 0-4 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Chicago Fire II win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Philadelphia Union II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2025 | Philadelphia Union II 5-2 Chicago Fire II | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Chicago Fire II 2-0 Philadelphia Union II | MLS Next Pro |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Chicago Fire II 2-1 Philadelphia Union II | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 10, 2024 | Philadelphia Union II 3-2 Chicago Fire II | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 28, 2024 | Chicago Fire II 1-1 Philadelphia Union II | MLS Next Pro |
| Jun 18, 2023 | Philadelphia Union II 2-5 Chicago Fire II | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: Philadelphia Union II vs Chicago Fire II on Sep 21, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Chicago Fire II score 2.6 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Philadelphia Union II score 1.2 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire II | 2.6 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 14/15 |
| Philadelphia Union II | 1.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chicago Fire II sit 4th in MLS Next Pro (39 points from 24 matches) and Philadelphia Union II sit 12th (33 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chicago Fire II | 24 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 49 | 37 | 39 |
| 6 | Philadelphia Union II | 24 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 30 | 36 | 33 |
| 8 | Chicago Fire II | 23 | 12 | 0 | 11 | 46 | 36 | 36 |
| 9 | Chicago Fire II | 24 | 13 | 0 | 11 | 49 | 37 | 39 |
| 11 | Philadelphia Union II | 23 | 11 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 32 | 33 |
| 12 | Philadelphia Union II | 24 | 11 | 0 | 13 | 30 | 36 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chicago Fire II vs Philadelphia Union II?
- The Footlab model makes Chicago Fire II the favourite at 57%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for Philadelphia Union II.
- Where and when is Chicago Fire II vs Philadelphia Union II played?
- Chicago Fire II vs Philadelphia Union II is played on September 13, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at SeatGeek Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC