Condal vs Lealtad: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 30Kick-off on April 11, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Alejandro Ortea, Noreña
The Footlab model makes Lealtad the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Condal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Condal vs Lealtad?
Lealtad starts as the favourite with a 211-point Elo edge (1,786 vs 1,575).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Condal have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Lealtad have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 4, 2025 | Ceares(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Colunga(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Covadonga(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | L'Entregu(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Coruxo(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD Ourense(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Real Valladolid II(home) | 2-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Atlético Astorga(away) | 4-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Condal win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Lealtad win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | Condal 0-3 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Lealtad 1-1 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Condal 0-5 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Lealtad 3-0 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Lealtad 1-2 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 17, 2022 | Condal 0-2 Lealtad | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Condal score 0.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lealtad score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condal | 0.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
| Lealtad | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Condal vs Lealtad?
- The Footlab model makes Lealtad the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Condal.
- Where and when is Condal vs Lealtad played?
- Condal vs Lealtad is played on April 11, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Alejandro Ortea, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.