Conil vs Utrera: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Group 10 - 19Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba, Conil de la Frontera
The Footlab model makes Conil the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Utrera. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Conil vs Utrera?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Conil (1,757) and Utrera (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Conil have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Utrera have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Linense(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 3, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Pozoblanco(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Roque Lepe(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Castilleja(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Bollullos(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| May 3, 2026 | Sevilla III(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Linense(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Recreativo Huelva(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Pozoblanco(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Conil win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Utrera win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Utrera 0-1 Conil | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Conil 4-2 Utrera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Conil 1-1 Utrera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Utrera 2-0 Conil | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Utrera 1-1 Conil | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Conil 2-4 Utrera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 |
How many goals should we expect?
Conil score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Utrera score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conil | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Utrera | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Conil sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 (52 points from 34 matches) and Utrera sit 10th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Conil | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 43 | 44 | 52 |
| 10 | Utrera | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 40 | 47 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Conil vs Utrera?
- The Footlab model makes Conil the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Utrera.
- Where and when is Conil vs Utrera played?
- Conil vs Utrera is played on January 10, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Jose António Pérez Ureba, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 10.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.