Corumbaense vs Comercial MS: prediction and stats
Sul-MatogrossenseMatchday 9Kick-off on February 24, 2027 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Estádio Artur Marinho, Corumbá, Mato Grosso do Sul
The Footlab AI model makes Corumbaense the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Comercial MS. The most likely score is 1-1. If Corumbaense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Corumbaense vs Comercial MS?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Corumbaense (1,459) and Comercial MS (1,379).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Corumbaense vs Comercial MS
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Corumbaense
4-3-3- RRomarinho
- IItalo Pica-Pau
- LLucas Cassiano de Almeida
- GGustavo Henrique Amaral
- LLaercio Jose Aguiar Cavalheiro Junior
- PPeterson
- JJaime Cardoso Pinto da Silva
- VVinícius Roberto Conceição da Costa
- EElivelton Fabrizio Vicente de Oliveira
- RRodrigo Digão
- RRenan Matheus de Oliveira Brites
Comercial MS
4-3-3- VValderlei Saldanha Araújo
- UUelison
- NNilson Diego Ferrerra
- LLucas Romeiro Alves
- AAnderson Ferreira Gibran
- SSousa
- DDavid Lopes
- LLeonardo
- JJeferson
- FFabricio Lopes de Souza
- AAdailson Martins
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 06:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Corumbaense have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Comercial MS have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | Operario Ferroviario(away) | 1-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Operario Ferroviario(home) | 1-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Dourados Atlético(home) | 2-0 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Dourados Atlético(away) | 1-1 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Costa Rica (away) | 2-0 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2023 | Operario Ferroviario(away) | 0-1 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Costa Rica (home) | 2-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Mar 2, 2023 | Chapadão(home) | 0-1 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Coxim(away) | 0-0 | Sul-Matogrossense |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Chapadão(away) | 1-2 | Sul-Matogrossense |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Corumbaense win, 0 draws, 0 Comercial MS wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2020 | Corumbaense 1-0 Comercial MS | Sul-Matogrossense |
Last archived meeting: Corumbaense vs Comercial MS on Mar 1, 2020
How many goals should we expect?
Corumbaense score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Comercial MS score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corumbaense | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Comercial MS | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Corumbaense | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
A question about Corumbaense vs Comercial MS?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Corumbaense vs Comercial MS?
- The Footlab AI model makes Corumbaense the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Comercial MS.
- Where and when is Corumbaense vs Comercial MS played?
- Corumbaense vs Comercial MS is played on February 24, 2027 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Estádio Artur Marinho, in the Sul-Matogrossense.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.