Covadonga vs Caudal: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, Oviedo
The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Caudal. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Covadonga vs Caudal?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Covadonga (1,932) and Caudal (1,905).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Covadonga have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Caudal have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Titánico(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Atlético Central(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Atlético Central(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Covadonga win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Caudal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Covadonga 2-4 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Caudal 2-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Caudal 2-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Covadonga 1-0 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Caudal 1-0 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Covadonga 0-0 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Covadonga score 2.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caudal score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Covadonga | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Caudal | 1.7 | 0.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Covadonga sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (80 points from 34 matches) and Caudal sit 4th (66 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Covadonga | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 88 | 24 | 80 |
| 4 | Caudal | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 39 | 66 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Covadonga vs Caudal?
- The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Caudal.
- Where and when is Covadonga vs Caudal played?
- Covadonga vs Caudal is played on September 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.