Covadonga vs Ceares: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 29Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, Oviedo
The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Ceares. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Covadonga vs Ceares?
Covadonga starts as the favourite with a 220-point Elo edge (1,931 vs 1,711).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Covadonga have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Ceares have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Titánico(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Siero(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Navarro(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Praviano(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Lenense(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Covadonga win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Ceares win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Covadonga 6-1 Ceares | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Ceares 2-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Covadonga 1-0 Ceares | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Ceares 3-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Ceares 1-0 Covadonga | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Covadonga 3-1 Ceares | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Covadonga score 2.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ceares score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Covadonga | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Ceares | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Covadonga sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (80 points from 34 matches) and Ceares sit 8th (45 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Covadonga | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 88 | 24 | 80 |
| 8 | Ceares | 34 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 40 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Covadonga vs Ceares?
- The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 74%, against 17% for a draw and 10% for Ceares.
- Where and when is Covadonga vs Ceares played?
- Covadonga vs Ceares is played on April 4, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.