Ceares vs Covadonga: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 12Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Cruz, Gijón
The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 70%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Ceares. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,403 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ceares vs Covadonga?
Covadonga starts as the favourite with a 249-point Elo edge (1,938 vs 1,689).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ceares vs Covadonga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ceares
Not enough data to predict the Ceares lineup.
Covadonga
Not enough data to predict the Covadonga lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:09 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ceares have 4 wins, 1 draw and 10 defeats; Covadonga have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | San Martín(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Siero(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Colunga(home) | 3-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | San Martín(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Siero(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Colunga(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 4-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Langreo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ceares wins, 0 draws, 4 Covadonga wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Covadonga 6-1 Ceares | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Ceares 2-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Covadonga 1-0 Ceares | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Ceares 3-1 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Ceares 1-0 Covadonga | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 16, 2023 | Covadonga 3-1 Ceares | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Ceares score 1.4 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Covadonga score 2.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceares | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Covadonga | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ceares sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (4 points from 6 matches) and Covadonga sit 1st (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Covadonga | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 13 |
| 13 | Ceares | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Ceares vs Covadonga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ceares vs Covadonga?
- The Footlab AI model makes Covadonga the favourite at 70%, against 17% for a draw and 13% for Ceares.
- Where and when is Ceares vs Covadonga played?
- Ceares vs Covadonga is played on November 22, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Cruz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.