Covadonga vs Condal: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, Oviedo
The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 84%, against 11% for a draw and 5% for Condal. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Covadonga vs Condal?
Covadonga is a heavy favourite: 1,930 Elo points against 1,574 — a 356-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Covadonga have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Condal have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Caudal(home) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Caudal(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Mosconia(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Mosconia(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Titánico(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 4, 2025 | Ceares(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Colunga(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Covadonga(away) | 0-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | L'Entregu(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Covadonga win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Condal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2025 | Covadonga 5-0 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Condal 0-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Covadonga 4-0 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 4, 2022 | Condal 0-3 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 9, 2020 | Condal 0-2 Covadonga | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 22, 2019 | Covadonga 4-2 Condal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Covadonga score 2.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Condal score 0.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Covadonga | 2.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Condal | 0.3 | 1.9 | 4 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Covadonga | 34 | 25 | 5 | 4 | 88 | 24 | 80 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Covadonga vs Condal?
- The Footlab model makes Covadonga the favourite at 84%, against 11% for a draw and 5% for Condal.
- Where and when is Covadonga vs Condal played?
- Covadonga vs Condal is played on November 1, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Antonio Alvarez Rabanal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.