CSM Adjud vs Aerostar Bacau: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 1Group 1 - 1Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Municipal, Adjud
The Footlab model makes CSM Adjud the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Aerostar Bacau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSM Adjud vs Aerostar Bacau?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate CSM Adjud (1,378) and Aerostar Bacau (1,364).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSM Adjud have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Aerostar Bacau have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Sporting Lieşti(home) | 2-4 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Târgu Secuiesc(home) | 2-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Râmnicu Sărat(away) | 3-0 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 1-0 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | FC Bacău II(away) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Viitorul Onesti(home) | 0-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Bucovina Rădăuţi(home) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(away) | 2-6 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-0 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 CSM Adjud win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Aerostar Bacau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | CSM Adjud 2-3 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | CSM Adjud 0-1 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Aerostar Bacau 1-0 CSM Adjud | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CSM Adjud 1-1 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 2 |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Aerostar Bacau 2-0 CSM Adjud | Liga III - Serie 2 |
Last archived meeting: CSM Adjud vs Aerostar Bacau on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CSM Adjud score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aerostar Bacau score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSM Adjud | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Aerostar Bacau | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSM Adjud sit 6th in Liga III - Serie 1 (35 points from 7 matches) and Aerostar Bacau sit 5th (35 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aerostar Bacau | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 35 |
| 6 | CSM Adjud | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSM Adjud vs Aerostar Bacau?
- The Footlab model makes CSM Adjud the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Aerostar Bacau.
- Where and when is CSM Adjud vs Aerostar Bacau played?
- CSM Adjud vs Aerostar Bacau is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Municipal, in the Liga III - Serie 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.