Gheorgheni vs Aerostar Bacau: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 1Group 1 - 13Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Viitorul, Gheorgheni
The Footlab model makes Gheorgheni the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Aerostar Bacau. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gheorgheni vs Aerostar Bacau?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Gheorgheni (1,380) and Aerostar Bacau (1,365).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gheorgheni have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Aerostar Bacau have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | ASA Targu Mures(home) | 0-2 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ(home) | 5-0 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(home) | 1-0 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(home) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(away) | 0-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Viitorul Onesti(home) | 0-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| May 16, 2026 | Bucovina Rădăuţi(home) | 2-1 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Odorheiu Secuiesc(away) | 2-6 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | CSM FC Vaslui(home) | 3-0 | Liga III - Serie 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Gheorgheni win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Aerostar Bacau win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Aerostar Bacau 2-2 Gheorgheni | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Gheorgheni 4-1 Aerostar Bacau | Liga III - Serie 1 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Aerostar Bacau 2-2 Gheorgheni | Liga III - Serie 1 |
Last archived meeting: Aerostar Bacau vs Gheorgheni on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gheorgheni score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Aerostar Bacau score 1.7 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gheorgheni | 1.4 | 1.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Aerostar Bacau | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gheorgheni sit 7th in Liga III - Serie 1 (34 points from 7 matches) and Aerostar Bacau sit 5th (35 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aerostar Bacau | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 35 |
| 7 | Gheorgheni | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 34 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gheorgheni vs Aerostar Bacau?
- The Footlab model makes Gheorgheni the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for Aerostar Bacau.
- Where and when is Gheorgheni vs Aerostar Bacau played?
- Gheorgheni vs Aerostar Bacau is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Viitorul, in the Liga III - Serie 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.