Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 9, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Tuško Polje, Tuzi
The Footlab model makes Dečić the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Arsenal Tivat. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Dečić (1,545) and Arsenal Tivat (1,449).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dečić have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Arsenal Tivat have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Otrant-Olympic(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Bokelj(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bokelj(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mornar(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Dečić(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| May 24, 2026 | Mladost DG(home) | 1-4 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Dečić win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Arsenal Tivat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Dečić 0-0 Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| May 20, 2026 | Dečić 1-2 Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat 0-1 Dečić | First League |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Dečić 4-2 Arsenal Tivat | First League |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Arsenal Tivat 1-1 Dečić | First League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Arsenal Tivat 1-0 Dečić | First League |
Last archived meeting: Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat on Aug 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dečić score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal Tivat score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dečić | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Arsenal Tivat | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dečić sit 1st in First League (10 points from 4 matches) and Arsenal Tivat sit 6th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dečić | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 6 | Arsenal Tivat | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat?
- The Footlab model makes Dečić the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Arsenal Tivat.
- Where and when is Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat played?
- Dečić vs Arsenal Tivat is played on December 9, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Tuško Polje, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.