Jezero vs Mornar: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 9, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion pod Racinom, Plav
The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 47%, against 31% for a draw and 22% for Jezero. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jezero vs Mornar?
Mornar starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,619 vs 1,461).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jezero have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Mornar have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sutjeska(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Petrovac(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Mladost DG(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Mornar(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Iskra(away) | 5-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mladost DG(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jezero(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Jezero win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Mornar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jezero 0-0 Mornar | First League |
| May 24, 2026 | Jezero 0-2 Mornar | First League |
| May 6, 2026 | Jezero 1-2 Mornar | Cup |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Mornar 1-0 Jezero | Cup |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Mornar 2-0 Jezero | First League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Jezero 2-1 Mornar | First League |
How many goals should we expect?
Jezero score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mornar score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jezero | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Mornar | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jezero sit 5th in First League (5 points from 4 matches) and Mornar sit 2nd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mornar | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 5 | Jezero | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jezero vs Mornar?
- The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 47%, against 31% for a draw and 22% for Jezero.
- Where and when is Jezero vs Mornar played?
- Jezero vs Mornar is played on December 9, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion pod Racinom, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.