Derio vs Sestao River: prediction and stats
Friendlies ClubsClub FriendliesKick-off on August 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, Derio
The Footlab model makes Sestao River the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Derio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derio vs Sestao River?
Sestao River starts as the favourite with a 111-point Elo edge (1,892 vs 1,781).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derio have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Sestao River have 2, 7 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 24, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 17, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gimnástica Torrelavega(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Athletic Club II(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 3, 2026 | Utebo(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Amorebieta(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Derio score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sestao River score 1.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derio | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Sestao River | 1.0 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derio vs Sestao River?
- The Footlab model makes Sestao River the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Derio.
- Where and when is Derio vs Sestao River played?
- Derio vs Sestao River is played on August 29, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibaiondo, in the Friendlies Clubs.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.