Digenis Neochori vs Ermis Exochi: prediction and stats
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4Group 4 - 18Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Dimotiko Stadio Oichalias Babis Papachatzis, Oichalia
The Footlab model makes Ermis Exochi the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Digenis Neochori. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Digenis Neochori vs Ermis Exochi?
Ermis Exochi starts as the favourite with a 171-point Elo edge (1,538 vs 1,366).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Digenis Neochori have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Ermis Exochi have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2023 | Trikala(away) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 12, 2023 | Asteras Petriti(home) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 8, 2023 | Chalkis(away) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Zakynthos(home) | 0-1 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Mar 26, 2023 | Panelefsiniakos(away) | 0-5 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2026 | Alexandreia(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Apollon Pontou(away) | 0-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Veria(home) | 2-2 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Pierikos(home) | 1-0 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou(away) | 2-5 | Gamma Ethniki - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Digenis Neochori score 0.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Ermis Exochi score 1.4 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digenis Neochori | 0.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
| Ermis Exochi | 1.4 | 1.7 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Digenis Neochori vs Ermis Exochi?
- The Footlab model makes Ermis Exochi the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Digenis Neochori.
- Where and when is Digenis Neochori vs Ermis Exochi played?
- Digenis Neochori vs Ermis Exochi is played on January 31, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Dimotiko Stadio Oichalias Babis Papachatzis, in the Gamma Ethniki - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.