Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu vs Progresul Spartac: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 5Group 5 - 5Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Marin Anastasovici, Giurgiu
The Footlab model makes Progresul Spartac the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu vs Progresul Spartac?
Progresul Spartac starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,478 vs 1,332).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Progresul Spartac have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti(home) | 0-3 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cetatea(home) | 2-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Alexandria(home) | 3-0 | Cupa României |
| May 9, 2026 | Progresul Spartac(away) | 2-4 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| May 1, 2026 | Oltul Curtişoara(home) | 1-1 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | CIL Blaj(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Metaloglobus(home) | 2-1 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Bolintin Vale(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Progresul Fundulea(home) | 2-0 | Cupa României |
| May 15, 2026 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni(away) | 8-0 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Progresul Spartac win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Progresul Spartac 4-2 Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Progresul Spartac 4-1 Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu 0-1 Progresul Spartac | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Progresul Spartac 2-1 Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu | Liga III - Serie 4 |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu 2-1 Progresul Spartac | Liga III - Serie 4 |
Last archived meeting: Progresul Spartac vs Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Progresul Spartac score 2.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu | 1.7 | 1.4 | 5 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Progresul Spartac | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu sit 4th in Liga III - Serie 5 (27 points from 6 matches) and Progresul Spartac sit 3rd (35 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Progresul Spartac | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 35 |
| 4 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu vs Progresul Spartac?
- The Footlab model makes Progresul Spartac the favourite at 54%, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu.
- Where and when is Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu vs Progresul Spartac played?
- Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu vs Progresul Spartac is played on September 23, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Marin Anastasovici, in the Liga III - Serie 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.