Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Semi-finalsKick-off on November 14, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Romário de Souza Faria, Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Duque de Caxias the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Serrano RJ. The most likely score is 1-1. If Duque de Caxias wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,175 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Duque de Caxias (1,493) and Serrano RJ (1,506).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Duque de Caxias
4-3-3- RRafael de Sa Rodrigues
- MMatheus Cardoso de Souza
- DDudu
- HHarison
- BBruno Arrabal Passamani
- SSampson
- DDiego Evangelista dos Santos
- BBruno Moura
- BBruno Everton Ferreira de Sousa
- HHenrique Motta
- RRafael Roballo
Serrano RJ
Not enough data to predict the Serrano RJ lineup.
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 03:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Duque de Caxias have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Serrano RJ have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Petrópolis(away) | 2-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Serrano RJ(home) | 1-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Macaé(away) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Artsul(home) | 2-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Campo Grande(away) | 3-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | São Cristóvão RJ(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Duque de Caxias(away) | 2-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Nova Cidade(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 20, 2026 | Petrópolis(away) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Carapebus(home) | 3-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Duque de Caxias wins, 1 draw, 2 Serrano RJ wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Duque de Caxias 1-2 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Serrano RJ 2-1 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| May 25, 2024 | Duque de Caxias 1-0 Serrano RJ | Carioca A2 |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Duque de Caxias 1-0 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Serrano RJ 0-0 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Duque de Caxias 3-2 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ on Oct 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Duque de Caxias score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Serrano RJ score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duque de Caxias | 1.3 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
| Serrano RJ | 1.1 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Duque de Caxias sit 4th in Carioca - 2 (19 points from 10 matches) and Serrano RJ sit 3rd (21 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Duque de Caxias | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 19 |
A question about Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ?
- The Footlab AI model makes Duque de Caxias the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Serrano RJ.
- Where and when is Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ played?
- Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ is played on November 14, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Romário de Souza Faria, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.