Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 10Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Romário de Souza Faria, Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Duque de Caxias the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Serrano RJ. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Duque de Caxias (1,621) and Serrano RJ (1,617).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Duque de Caxias have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Serrano RJ have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 23, 2026 | Olaria(away) | 0-4 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Olaria(home) | 0-2 | Copa Rio |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 15, 2025 | Bonsucesso(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Carapebus(away) | 2-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 4, 2026 | América RJ(away) | 0-5 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(home) | 0-3 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 24, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(away) | 2-3 | Copa Rio |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Resende(away) | 0-0 | Carioca A2 |
| Jun 17, 2026 | São Gonçalo EC RJ(home) | 0-0 | Copa Rio |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Duque de Caxias win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Serrano RJ win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2025 | Serrano RJ 2-1 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| May 25, 2024 | Duque de Caxias 1-0 Serrano RJ | Carioca A2 |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Duque de Caxias 1-0 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Serrano RJ 0-0 Duque de Caxias | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 3, 2023 | Duque de Caxias 3-2 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Duque de Caxias 1-1 Serrano RJ | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Serrano RJ vs Duque de Caxias on Sep 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Duque de Caxias score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Serrano RJ score 0.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duque de Caxias | 0.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
| Serrano RJ | 0.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Duque de Caxias sit 4th in Carioca - 2 (18 points from 11 matches) and Serrano RJ sit 3rd (18 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Serrano RJ | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | 18 |
| 4 | Duque de Caxias | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ?
- The Footlab model makes Duque de Caxias the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Serrano RJ.
- Where and when is Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ played?
- Duque de Caxias vs Serrano RJ is played on October 31, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Romário de Souza Faria, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.