East Kilbride vs Hamilton Academical: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)K Park Training Academy, East Kilbride
The Footlab model makes East Kilbride the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Hamilton Academical. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win East Kilbride vs Hamilton Academical?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate East Kilbride (1,718) and Hamilton Academical (1,724).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, East Kilbride have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Hamilton Academical have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Cowdenbeath(away) | 3-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Montrose(away) | 0-3 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cove Rangers(home) | 3-0 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Kilmarnock II(home) | 5-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Airdrie United(away) | 1-1 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Edinburgh City(home) | 0-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | East Fife(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Airdrie United(home) | 4-0 | League One |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Celtic II(home) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 1-0 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 East Kilbride win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Hamilton Academical win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2025 | East Kilbride 2-4 Hamilton Academical | Challenge Cup |
| Oct 14, 2023 | East Kilbride 2-5 Hamilton Academical | Challenge Cup |
| Nov 26, 2022 | Hamilton Academical 4-0 East Kilbride | FA Cup |
| Jul 15, 2017 | East Kilbride 1-3 Hamilton Academical | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: East Kilbride vs Hamilton Academical on Sep 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
East Kilbride score 2.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Hamilton Academical score 2.1 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Kilbride | 2.9 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 12/15 |
| Hamilton Academical | 2.1 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
East Kilbride sit 3rd in League One (7 points from 4 matches) and Hamilton Academical sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton Academical | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for East Kilbride vs Hamilton Academical?
- The Footlab model makes East Kilbride the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Hamilton Academical.
- Where and when is East Kilbride vs Hamilton Academical played?
- East Kilbride vs Hamilton Academical is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at K Park Training Academy, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.