Edinburgh City vs Dumbarton: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Meadowbank Stadium, Edinburgh
The Footlab model makes Edinburgh City the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Dumbarton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Edinburgh City vs Dumbarton?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Edinburgh City (1,532) and Dumbarton (1,453).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Edinburgh City have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Dumbarton have 3, 0 and 12.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Annan Athletic(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dumbarton(away) | 3-0 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Cowdenbeath(home) | 3-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Spartans(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Elgin City(home) | 0-5 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kelty Hearts(away) | 1-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Edinburgh City(home) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Airdrie United(home) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Clyde(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stirling Albion(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Edinburgh City win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Dumbarton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dumbarton 0-3 Edinburgh City | League Two |
| May 2, 2026 | Edinburgh City 5-0 Dumbarton | League Two |
| Jan 31, 2026 | Dumbarton 1-2 Edinburgh City | League Two |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Edinburgh City 4-3 Dumbarton | League Two |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Dumbarton 1-2 Edinburgh City | League Two |
| May 7, 2022 | Dumbarton 1-1 Edinburgh City | League One |
Last archived meeting: Dumbarton vs Edinburgh City on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Edinburgh City score 1.6 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Dumbarton score 0.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edinburgh City | 1.6 | 1.8 | 6 | 4/15 | 9/15 |
| Dumbarton | 0.9 | 2.7 | 2 | 6/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Edinburgh City sit 10th in League Two (2 points from 4 matches) and Dumbarton sit 9th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dumbarton | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 10 | Edinburgh City | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Edinburgh City vs Dumbarton?
- The Footlab model makes Edinburgh City the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Dumbarton.
- Where and when is Edinburgh City vs Dumbarton played?
- Edinburgh City vs Dumbarton is played on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Meadowbank Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.