Kelty Hearts vs Elgin City: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)New Central Park, Kelty
The Footlab model makes Kelty Hearts the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Elgin City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kelty Hearts vs Elgin City?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Kelty Hearts (1,528) and Elgin City (1,564).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kelty Hearts have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Elgin City have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dumbarton(home) | 3-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elgin City(away) | 1-4 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Motherwell U21(home) | 4-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stirling Albion(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spartans(away) | 3-3 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kelty Hearts(home) | 4-1 | League Two |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 1-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Forfar Athletic(home) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Edinburgh City(away) | 5-0 | League Two |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Kelty Hearts win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Elgin City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Elgin City 4-1 Kelty Hearts | League Two |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Elgin City 3-2 Kelty Hearts | FA Cup |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Kelty Hearts 3-1 Elgin City | Challenge Cup |
| Jul 16, 2024 | Elgin City 1-1 Kelty Hearts | League Cup |
| Mar 19, 2022 | Elgin City 0-0 Kelty Hearts | League Two |
| Feb 5, 2022 | Kelty Hearts 4-0 Elgin City | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Elgin City vs Kelty Hearts on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kelty Hearts score 1.2 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Elgin City score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelty Hearts | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Elgin City | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kelty Hearts sit 4th in League Two (6 points from 4 matches) and Elgin City sit 2nd (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Elgin City | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 5 | 8 |
| 4 | Kelty Hearts | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kelty Hearts vs Elgin City?
- The Footlab model makes Kelty Hearts the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Elgin City.
- Where and when is Kelty Hearts vs Elgin City played?
- Kelty Hearts vs Elgin City is played on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at New Central Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.