El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Arab Contractors Stadium (Osman Ahmed Osman Stadium), Cairo
The Footlab model makes Al Ahly the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for El Mokawloon. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
Al Ahly starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (2,031 vs 1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, El Mokawloon have 4 wins, 9 draws and 2 defeats; Al Ahly have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | El Geish(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| May 29, 2026 | Future FC(home) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Kahraba Ismailia(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| May 18, 2026 | Wadi Degla(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Haras El Hodood(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Enppi(home) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 20, 2026 | AL Masry(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| May 5, 2026 | Enppi(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| May 1, 2026 | Zamalek SC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 El Mokawloon win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Al Ahly win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | El Mokawloon 1-3 Al Ahly | Premier League |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Al Ahly 0-3 El Mokawloon | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2024 | Al Ahly 4-0 El Mokawloon | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2023 | El Mokawloon 1-2 Al Ahly | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2023 | El Mokawloon 1-4 Al Ahly | Premier League |
| Mar 7, 2023 | Al Ahly 2-1 El Mokawloon | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly on Mar 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
El Mokawloon score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Al Ahly score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Mokawloon | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Al Ahly | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
El Mokawloon sit 17th in Premier League (0 points from 1 matches) and Al Ahly sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Ahly | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 17 | El Mokawloon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly?
- The Footlab model makes Al Ahly the favourite at 49%, against 29% for a draw and 22% for El Mokawloon.
- Where and when is El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly played?
- El Mokawloon vs Al Ahly is played on September 9, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Arab Contractors Stadium (Osman Ahmed Osman Stadium), in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.