El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 25, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Southwest University Park, El Paso
The Footlab model makes New Mexico United the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for El Paso Locomotive. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate El Paso Locomotive (1,736) and New Mexico United (1,817).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, El Paso Locomotive have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; New Mexico United have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Colorado Springs(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Loudoun United(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Tulsa(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monterey Bay(away) | 5-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Colorado Springs(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Lexington(away) | 4-1 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 El Paso Locomotive win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 New Mexico United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive 0-2 New Mexico United | USL League One Cup |
| May 7, 2026 | New Mexico United 2-2 El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| Apr 2, 2026 | New Mexico United 0-4 El Paso Locomotive | US Open Cup |
| Feb 28, 2026 | El Paso Locomotive 4-1 New Mexico United | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 4, 2025 | El Paso Locomotive 3-0 New Mexico United | USL Championship |
| Apr 17, 2025 | New Mexico United 2-2 El Paso Locomotive | US Open Cup |
Last archived meeting: El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United on Jul 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
El Paso Locomotive score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; New Mexico United score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| New Mexico United | 1.7 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
El Paso Locomotive sit 7th in USL Championship (16 points from 12 matches) and New Mexico United sit 9th (15 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New Mexico United | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 26 | 17 | 34 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 34 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 16 |
| 9 | New Mexico United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United?
- The Footlab model makes New Mexico United the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for El Paso Locomotive.
- Where and when is El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United played?
- El Paso Locomotive vs New Mexico United is played on October 25, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Southwest University Park, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots