El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic: prediction and stats
USL ChampionshipGroup StageKick-off on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Southwest University Park, El Paso
The Footlab model makes Sacramento Republic the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for El Paso Locomotive. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate El Paso Locomotive (1,736) and Sacramento Republic (1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, El Paso Locomotive have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Sacramento Republic have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Colorado Springs(away) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Antonio(away) | 3-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Oakland Roots(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Monterey Bay(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Orange County SC(away) | 0-2 | USL Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Phoenix Rising(home) | 2-2 | USL Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lexington(home) | 1-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds(away) | 0-0 | USL Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FC Tulsa(away) | 0-1 | USL Championship |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sporting JAX(home) | 5-0 | USL Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 El Paso Locomotive win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Sacramento Republic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2026 | Sacramento Republic 1-2 El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| Aug 24, 2025 | El Paso Locomotive 1-0 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Sacramento Republic 3-0 El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| Oct 20, 2024 | El Paso Locomotive 2-1 Sacramento Republic | USL Championship |
| Aug 15, 2024 | Sacramento Republic 2-0 El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Sacramento Republic 1-0 El Paso Locomotive | USL Championship |
Last archived meeting: Sacramento Republic vs El Paso Locomotive on Mar 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
El Paso Locomotive score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Sacramento Republic score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Paso Locomotive | 1.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Sacramento Republic | 1.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
El Paso Locomotive sit 7th in USL Championship (16 points from 12 matches) and Sacramento Republic sit 6th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 34 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Sacramento Republic | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 18 | 31 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 22 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic?
- The Footlab model makes Sacramento Republic the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for El Paso Locomotive.
- Where and when is El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic played?
- El Paso Locomotive vs Sacramento Republic is played on October 18, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Southwest University Park, in the USL Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 7, 2026Lexington1-2Louisville City
- Mar 7, 2026Charleston Battery2-1Pittsburgh Riverhounds
- Mar 8, 2026Sporting JAX0-3Hartford Athletic
- Mar 8, 2026Birmingham Legion0-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
- Mar 8, 2026San Antonio2-1Phoenix Rising
- Mar 8, 2026El Paso Locomotive2-2Colorado Springs
- Mar 8, 2026Sacramento Republic2-0FC Tulsa
- Mar 8, 2026Monterey Bay0-1Oakland Roots