Elche vs Real Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Elche. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elche vs Real Madrid?
Real Madrid starts as the favourite with a 286-point Elo edge (2,337 vs 2,051).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elche have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Real Madrid have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Leganes(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Elche win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Real Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Real Madrid 4-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Nov 23, 2025 | Elche 2-2 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Feb 15, 2023 | Real Madrid 4-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Oct 19, 2022 | Elche 0-3 Real Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 23, 2022 | Real Madrid 2-2 Elche | La Liga |
| Jan 20, 2022 | Elche 1-2 Real Madrid | Copa del Rey |
How many goals should we expect?
Elche score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Madrid score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Real Madrid | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Elche | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elche vs Real Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Elche.
- Where and when is Elche vs Real Madrid played?
- Elche vs Real Madrid is played on September 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.