Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Osasuna. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (2,247 vs 2,057).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Osasuna have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Napoli(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Norwich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Atletico Madrid win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Osasuna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Osasuna 1-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| May 15, 2025 | Osasuna 2-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Osasuna | La Liga |
| May 19, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 1-4 Osasuna | La Liga |
| Sep 28, 2023 | Osasuna 0-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid on May 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Osasuna score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Osasuna | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Osasuna.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna is played on September 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.