Empoli vs Ascoli: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 27Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli
The Footlab model makes Ascoli the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Empoli. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Empoli vs Ascoli?
Ascoli starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,968 vs 1,824).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Empoli have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Ascoli have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cremonese(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Pisa(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Livorno(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Spezia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Virtus Entella(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Hellas Verona(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-4 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Potenza(home) | 3-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Lazio(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Empoli win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Ascoli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2021 | Ascoli 2-0 Empoli | Serie B |
| Dec 30, 2020 | Empoli 1-1 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Jul 13, 2020 | Ascoli 1-0 Empoli | Serie B |
| Dec 7, 2019 | Empoli 2-1 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Feb 10, 2018 | Ascoli 1-2 Empoli | Serie B |
| Sep 16, 2017 | Empoli 3-0 Ascoli | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Empoli score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
| Ascoli | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Empoli sit 9th in Serie B (3 points from 1 matches) and Ascoli sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ascoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Empoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Empoli vs Ascoli?
- The Footlab model makes Ascoli the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Empoli.
- Where and when is Empoli vs Ascoli played?
- Empoli vs Ascoli is played on February 27, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.