Empoli vs Ascoli: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 27Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli
The Footlab AI model makes Ascoli the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Empoli. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ascoli wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Empoli vs Ascoli?
Ascoli starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,907 vs 1,741).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Empoli vs Ascoli
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Empoli
3-5-2- 10E. Saporiti
- 11S. Shpendi
- 8L. Magnino
- 91N. Corrado
- 15J. Ceesay
- 39E. Biondini
- 21Gerard Yepes
- 33C. Cauz
- 25M. Curto
- 6S. Romagnoli
- 12J. Seghetti
Ascoli
4-2-3-1- 35G. Gori
- 62T. Milanese
- 15S. D'Uffizi
- 8G. Corradini
- 4S. Damiani
- 7A. Silipo
- 30M. Curado
- 19A. Guiébré
- 33N. Rizzo
- 14A. Oliveri
- 1S. Vitale
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 11:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Empoli have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Ascoli have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 2-4 | Serie B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Modena(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Carrarese(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Mantova(away) | 1-3 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sudtirol(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Padova(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benevento(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Carrarese(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Empoli wins, 1 draw, 2 Ascoli wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2021 | Ascoli 2-0 Empoli | Serie B |
| Dec 30, 2020 | Empoli 1-1 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Jul 13, 2020 | Ascoli 1-0 Empoli | Serie B |
| Dec 7, 2019 | Empoli 2-1 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Feb 10, 2018 | Ascoli 1-2 Empoli | Serie B |
| Sep 16, 2017 | Empoli 3-0 Ascoli | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Empoli score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Ascoli | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Empoli sit 13th in Serie B (6 points from 6 matches) and Ascoli sit 5th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ascoli | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Empoli | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
A question about Empoli vs Ascoli?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Empoli vs Ascoli?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ascoli the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Empoli.
- Where and when is Empoli vs Ascoli played?
- Empoli vs Ascoli is played on February 27, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.