Ascoli vs Empoli: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno
The Footlab model makes Ascoli the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Empoli. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ascoli vs Empoli?
Ascoli starts as the favourite with a 136-point Elo edge (1,980 vs 1,844).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ascoli have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Empoli have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Hellas Verona(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Genoa(away) | 1-4 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Potenza(home) | 3-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Lazio(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Frosinone(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cremonese(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Pisa(away) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Livorno(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Spezia(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Virtus Entella(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ascoli win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Empoli win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2021 | Ascoli 2-0 Empoli | Serie B |
| Dec 30, 2020 | Empoli 1-1 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Jul 13, 2020 | Ascoli 1-0 Empoli | Serie B |
| Dec 7, 2019 | Empoli 2-1 Ascoli | Serie B |
| Feb 10, 2018 | Ascoli 1-2 Empoli | Serie B |
| Sep 16, 2017 | Empoli 3-0 Ascoli | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Empoli score 1.2 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ascoli | 1.5 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Empoli | 1.2 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ascoli sit 2nd in Serie B (3 points from 1 matches) and Empoli sit 9th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Ascoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Empoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ascoli vs Empoli?
- The Footlab model makes Ascoli the favourite at 59%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Empoli.
- Where and when is Ascoli vs Empoli played?
- Ascoli vs Empoli is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.