Esbjerg vs Aalborg: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Blue Water Arena, Esbjerg
The Footlab model makes Esbjerg the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Aalborg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Esbjerg vs Aalborg?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Esbjerg (1,833) and Aalborg (1,818).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Esbjerg have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Aalborg have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Vejle(away) | 2-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hobro(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hvidovre(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Bogense(away) | 6-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hillerød(away) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hobro(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Fredericia(home) | 0-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kolding IF(home) | 1-1 | 1. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Holstebro(away) | 3-1 | DBU Pokalen |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Aarhus Fremad(away) | 2-1 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Esbjerg win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Aalborg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Aalborg 1-1 Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Esbjerg 1-0 Aalborg | 1. Division |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Esbjerg 0-2 Aalborg | DBU Pokalen |
| Jun 30, 2021 | Aalborg 0-0 Esbjerg | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 19, 2020 | Esbjerg 2-1 Aalborg | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 31, 2020 | Esbjerg 1-1 Aalborg | Superliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Esbjerg score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Aalborg score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esbjerg | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Aalborg | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Esbjerg sit 9th in 1. Division (4 points from 5 matches) and Aalborg sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aalborg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Esbjerg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Esbjerg vs Aalborg?
- The Footlab model makes Esbjerg the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Aalborg.
- Where and when is Esbjerg vs Aalborg played?
- Esbjerg vs Aalborg is played on October 10, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Blue Water Arena, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.