Esbjerg vs HB Koge: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Blue Water Arena, Esbjerg
The Footlab model makes Esbjerg the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for HB Koge. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Esbjerg vs HB Koge?
Esbjerg starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,833 vs 1,704).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Esbjerg have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; HB Koge have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Vejle(away) | 2-4 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hobro(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Hvidovre(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Bogense(away) | 6-0 | DBU Pokalen |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hillerød(away) | 3-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Kolding IF(home) | 2-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hvidovre(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aarhus Fremad(away) | 1-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Brønshøj(away) | 0-1 | DBU Pokalen |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Vejle(home) | 0-2 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Esbjerg win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 HB Koge win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | HB Koge 0-1 Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| Sep 1, 2025 | Esbjerg 3-2 HB Koge | 1. Division |
| Feb 28, 2025 | HB Koge 0-2 Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Esbjerg 4-1 HB Koge | 1. Division |
| May 7, 2022 | HB Koge 2-1 Esbjerg | 1. Division |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Esbjerg 0-0 HB Koge | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Esbjerg score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; HB Koge score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esbjerg | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| HB Koge | 1.0 | 1.5 | 2 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Esbjerg sit 9th in 1. Division (4 points from 5 matches) and HB Koge sit 12th (1 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Esbjerg | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 4 |
| 12 | HB Koge | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Esbjerg vs HB Koge?
- The Footlab model makes Esbjerg the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for HB Koge.
- Where and when is Esbjerg vs HB Koge played?
- Esbjerg vs HB Koge is played on September 12, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Blue Water Arena, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.