Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor: prediction and stats
1. LigRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Fatih Karagümrük the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Kayserispor. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Fatih Karagümrük (1,868) and Kayserispor (1,863).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fatih Karagümrük have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Kayserispor have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Bursaspor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ümraniyespor(home) | 2-1 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 0-2 | 1. Lig |
| May 16, 2026 | Alanyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
| May 9, 2026 | Kocaelispor(away) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Iğdır FK(away) | 1-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sivasspor(home) | 2-0 | 1. Lig |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vanspor FK(away) | 2-0 | 1. Lig |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Konyaspor(home) | 2-1 | Süper Lig |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fatih Karagümrük win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Kayserispor win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | Kayserispor 1-0 Fatih Karagümrük | Süper Lig |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Fatih Karagümrük 2-2 Kayserispor | Süper Lig |
| May 4, 2024 | Kayserispor 2-2 Fatih Karagümrük | Süper Lig |
| Jan 10, 2024 | Fatih Karagümrük 4-1 Kayserispor | Süper Lig |
| May 30, 2023 | Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Kayserispor | Süper Lig |
| Jan 4, 2023 | Kayserispor 2-4 Fatih Karagümrük | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Kayserispor vs Fatih Karagümrük on Mar 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fatih Karagümrük score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Kayserispor score 1.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatih Karagümrük | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Kayserispor | 1.0 | 1.4 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fatih Karagümrük sit 6th in 1. Lig (6 points from 3 matches) and Kayserispor sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kayserispor | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Fatih Karagümrük | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
- The Footlab model makes Fatih Karagümrük the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Kayserispor.
- Where and when is Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor played?
- Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor is played on September 2, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Atatürk Olimpiyat Stadı, in the 1. Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.