FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
The Footlab model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for FC Winterthur. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate FC Aarau (1,875) and FC Winterthur (1,776).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Aarau have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; FC Winterthur have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Yverdon Sport(away) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biel-Bienne(away) | 3-3 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(home) | 2-1 | Challenge League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy(home) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Étoile Carouge(away) | 0-3 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Rapperswil(away) | 2-0 | Challenge League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Zürich City(away) | 3-1 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC WIL 1900(home) | 5-0 | Challenge League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | SC Kriens(away) | 0-2 | Challenge League |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Yverdon Sport(home) | 2-2 | Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Aarau win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 FC Winterthur win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 17, 2023 | FC Aarau 1-2 FC Winterthur | Schweizer Cup |
| Jul 8, 2023 | FC Winterthur 2-0 FC Aarau | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 8, 2022 | FC Aarau 0-3 FC Winterthur | Challenge League |
| Mar 11, 2022 | FC Winterthur 4-2 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Dec 3, 2021 | FC Aarau 2-0 FC Winterthur | Challenge League |
| Sep 24, 2021 | FC Winterthur 0-0 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur on Sep 17, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
FC Aarau score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; FC Winterthur score 1.8 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Aarau | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| FC Winterthur | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Aarau sit 7th in Challenge League (4 points from 4 matches) and FC Winterthur sit 4th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Winterthur | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | FC Aarau | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur?
- The Footlab model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for FC Winterthur.
- Where and when is FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur played?
- FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur is played on December 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Brügglifeld, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.