FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueMatchday 18Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Brügglifeld, Aarau
The Footlab AI model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for FC Winterthur. The most likely score is 1-1. If FC Aarau wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 5,760 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate FC Aarau (1,768) and FC Winterthur (1,752).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Aarau
4-3-3- 18D. Afriyie
- 11H. Koide
- 7M. Guindo
- 6I. Aliu
- 20K. Ndau
- 80A. Beka Beka
- 2M. Thaler
- 29M. Dickenmann
- 3R. Guzzo
- 5D. Acquah
- 30A. Hirzel
FC Winterthur
4-2-3-1- 68B. Beyer
- 19Y. Odin
- 20A. Marchesano
- 44S. Cueni
- 27F. Rohner
- 7L. Zuffi
- 16R. Arnold
- 4S. Camara
- 21S. Ottiger
- 33Tibault Citherlet
- 75A. Spagnoli
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 05:15 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Aarau have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; FC Winterthur have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2026 | FC WIL 1900(home) | 0-3 | Challenge League |
| Oct 30, 2026 | Neuchatel Xamax FC(away) | 3-1 | Challenge League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Étoile Carouge(home) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | FC Zurich(home) | 2-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(away) | 1-2 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Étoile Carouge(home) | 2-2 | Challenge League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | FC WIL 1900(away) | 3-0 | Challenge League |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Stade Nyonnais(home) | 4-0 | Challenge League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | FC Luzern(home) | 0-1 | Schweizer Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Neuchatel Xamax FC(away) | 0-3 | Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Aarau win, 0 draws, 5 FC Winterthur wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 18, 2026 | FC Winterthur 2-1 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Sep 17, 2023 | FC Aarau 1-2 FC Winterthur | Schweizer Cup |
| Jul 8, 2023 | FC Winterthur 2-0 FC Aarau | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 8, 2022 | FC Aarau 0-3 FC Winterthur | Challenge League |
| Mar 11, 2022 | FC Winterthur 4-2 FC Aarau | Challenge League |
| Dec 3, 2021 | FC Aarau 2-0 FC Winterthur | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: FC Winterthur vs FC Aarau on Sep 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Aarau score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; FC Winterthur score 2.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Aarau | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
| FC Winterthur | 2.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Aarau sit 6th in Challenge League (15 points from 13 matches) and FC Winterthur sit 2nd (25 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Winterthur | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 13 | 25 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 24 | 15 |
A question about FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Aarau the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for FC Winterthur.
- Where and when is FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur played?
- FC Aarau vs FC Winterthur is played on December 19, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Brügglifeld, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.