FC Cincinnati II vs Crown Legacy: prediction and stats
MLS Next ProGroup StageKick-off on September 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Northern Kentucky University Stadium, Cincinnati, Kentucky
The Footlab model makes Crown Legacy the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 21% for FC Cincinnati II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Cincinnati II vs Crown Legacy?
Crown Legacy starts as the favourite with a 180-point Elo edge (1,704 vs 1,524).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Cincinnati II have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Crown Legacy have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carolina Core(away) | 3-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | New York City II(away) | 0-5 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Connecticut FC(home) | 2-3 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Philadelphia Union II(away) | 1-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Chicago Fire II(away) | 2-7 | MLS Next Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chattanooga(home) | 3-1 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Connecticut FC(home) | 0-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Huntsville City(away) | 2-2 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Inter Miami II(away) | 2-0 | MLS Next Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Huntsville City(away) | 3-1 | MLS Next Pro |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Cincinnati II win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Crown Legacy win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2025 | FC Cincinnati II 4-3 Crown Legacy | MLS Next Pro |
| May 25, 2025 | Crown Legacy 2-0 FC Cincinnati II | MLS Next Pro |
| Oct 20, 2024 | FC Cincinnati II 1-2 Crown Legacy | MLS Next Pro |
| May 4, 2024 | FC Cincinnati II 2-1 Crown Legacy | MLS Next Pro |
| Jul 29, 2023 | FC Cincinnati II 0-1 Crown Legacy | MLS Next Pro |
| Mar 31, 2023 | Crown Legacy 2-1 FC Cincinnati II | MLS Next Pro |
Last archived meeting: FC Cincinnati II vs Crown Legacy on Aug 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
FC Cincinnati II score 1.1 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Crown Legacy score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati II | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Crown Legacy | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Cincinnati II sit 15th in MLS Next Pro (19 points from 24 matches) and Crown Legacy sit 1st (51 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 24 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 57 | 33 | 51 |
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 24 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 57 | 33 | 51 |
| 1 | Crown Legacy | 22 | 17 | 0 | 5 | 54 | 30 | 48 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati II | 24 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 27 | 54 | 19 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 24 | 7 | 0 | 17 | 27 | 54 | 19 |
| 15 | FC Cincinnati II | 22 | 6 | 0 | 16 | 24 | 48 | 16 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Cincinnati II vs Crown Legacy?
- The Footlab model makes Crown Legacy the favourite at 58%, against 20% for a draw and 21% for FC Cincinnati II.
- Where and when is FC Cincinnati II vs Crown Legacy played?
- FC Cincinnati II vs Crown Legacy is played on September 20, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Northern Kentucky University Stadium, in the MLS Next Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 28, 2026Inter Miami II1-1Chicago Fire II
- Feb 28, 2026Philadelphia Union II1-0Toronto II
- Feb 28, 2026St. Louis City II4-0Sporting KC II
- Mar 1, 2026Chattanooga1-4Crown Legacy
- Mar 1, 2026Portland Timbers II2-1The Town
- Mar 1, 2026New York RB II4-2Columbus Crew II
- Mar 1, 2026Real Monarchs2-2North Texas
- Mar 1, 2026FC Cincinnati II1-3Connecticut FC