FC Thun vs FC Lugano: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stockhorn Arena, Thun
The Footlab model makes FC Lugano the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for FC Thun. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
A very open match: only 89 Elo points separate FC Thun (1,957) and FC Lugano (2,046).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Thun have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; FC Lugano have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Lech Poznan(away) | 0-7 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Saxon Sports(away) | 6-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Vikingur Reykjavik(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 2-4 | Super League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vikingur Reykjavik(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vedeggio(away) | 10-1 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | NSI Runavik(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Zurich(home) | 5-0 | Super League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | NSI Runavik(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FC Thun win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 FC Lugano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | FC Thun 0-1 FC Lugano | Super League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | FC Lugano 1-0 FC Thun | Super League |
| Nov 22, 2025 | FC Thun 0-1 FC Lugano | Super League |
| Jul 27, 2025 | FC Lugano 1-2 FC Thun | Super League |
| Feb 10, 2022 | FC Thun 3-4 FC Lugano | Schweizer Cup |
| Jul 15, 2020 | FC Lugano 1-1 FC Thun | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Thun score 1.7 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; FC Lugano score 3.1 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| FC Lugano | 3.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Thun sit 9th in Super League (3 points from 3 matches) and FC Lugano sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | FC Lugano | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
- The Footlab model makes FC Lugano the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for FC Thun.
- Where and when is FC Thun vs FC Lugano played?
- FC Thun vs FC Lugano is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stockhorn Arena, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.