FC Thun vs FC Luzern: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stockhorn Arena, Thun
The Footlab model makes FC Thun the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for FC Luzern. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Thun vs FC Luzern?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate FC Thun (1,958) and FC Luzern (1,945).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Thun have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; FC Luzern have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Lech Poznan(away) | 0-7 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Saxon Sports(away) | 6-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Vikingur Reykjavik(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 2-4 | Super League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Vikingur Reykjavik(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lausanne(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Buochs(away) | 3-0 | Schweizer Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC ST. Gallen(away) | 2-2 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | FC Sion(away) | 0-3 | Super League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 FC Thun win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 FC Luzern win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Luzern 1-3 FC Thun | Super League |
| Feb 28, 2026 | FC Thun 2-1 FC Luzern | Super League |
| Dec 6, 2025 | FC Thun 4-1 FC Luzern | Super League |
| Aug 9, 2025 | FC Luzern 1-2 FC Thun | Super League |
| Oct 11, 2024 | FC Thun 2-3 FC Luzern | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 16, 2023 | FC Thun 1-3 FC Luzern | Schweizer Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Thun score 1.7 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 15; FC Luzern score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Thun | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| FC Luzern | 2.0 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Thun sit 9th in Super League (3 points from 3 matches) and FC Luzern sit 7th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | FC Luzern | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Thun vs FC Luzern?
- The Footlab model makes FC Thun the favourite at 44%, against 23% for a draw and 33% for FC Luzern.
- Where and when is FC Thun vs FC Luzern played?
- FC Thun vs FC Luzern is played on December 5, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stockhorn Arena, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.