Feirense vs União de Leiria: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Marcolino de Castro, Santa Maria da Feira
The Footlab model makes União de Leiria the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Feirense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Feirense vs União de Leiria?
A very open match: only 77 Elo points separate Feirense (1,867) and União de Leiria (1,944).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Feirense have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; União de Leiria have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | FC Porto B(home) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Academica(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | União Lamas(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 4-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 1-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vizela(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | AD Marco 09(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Feirense win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 União de Leiria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | União de Leiria 2-2 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Feirense 2-2 União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Feirense 2-1 União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
| Nov 30, 2024 | União de Leiria 1-0 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
| May 4, 2024 | Feirense 1-0 União de Leiria | Segunda Liga |
| Dec 30, 2023 | União de Leiria 1-1 Feirense | Segunda Liga |
Last archived meeting: União de Leiria vs Feirense on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Feirense score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; União de Leiria score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense | 0.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| União de Leiria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Feirense sit 17th in Segunda Liga (1 points from 3 matches) and União de Leiria sit 9th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | União de Leiria | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 17 | Feirense | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Feirense vs União de Leiria?
- The Footlab model makes União de Leiria the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Feirense.
- Where and when is Feirense vs União de Leiria played?
- Feirense vs União de Leiria is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Marcolino de Castro, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.