Flamengo PI vs 4 de Julho: prediction and stats
Piauiense - 2Regular Season - 2Kick-off on September 9, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro, Teresina, Piauí
The Footlab model makes Flamengo PI the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for 4 de Julho. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Flamengo PI vs 4 de Julho?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Flamengo PI (1,514) and 4 de Julho (1,585).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flamengo PI have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; 4 de Julho have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2025 | Teresina Esporte Club(home) | 0-0 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Teresina Esporte Club(away) | 2-3 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Comercial PI(away) | 1-0 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Caicara(away) | 0-0 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Picos(home) | 3-0 | Piauiense - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2025 | Altos(away) | 0-4 | Piauiense |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Altos(home) | 1-0 | Piauiense |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Parnahyba(home) | 2-4 | Piauiense |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Oeirense(home) | 1-2 | Piauiense |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Piauí(away) | 1-1 | Piauiense |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Flamengo PI win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 4 de Julho win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 16, 2022 | 4 de Julho 1-0 Flamengo PI | Piauiense |
| Jan 15, 2022 | Flamengo PI 0-0 4 de Julho | Piauiense |
| May 16, 2021 | 4 de Julho 3-1 Flamengo PI | Piauiense |
| May 5, 2021 | Flamengo PI 0-1 4 de Julho | Piauiense |
| Nov 25, 2020 | 4 de Julho 0-0 Flamengo PI | Piauiense |
| Feb 10, 2020 | Flamengo PI 0-3 4 de Julho | Piauiense |
Last archived meeting: 4 de Julho vs Flamengo PI on Feb 16, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Flamengo PI score 0.6 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; 4 de Julho score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo PI | 0.6 | 2.3 | 6 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| 4 de Julho | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Flamengo PI vs 4 de Julho?
- The Footlab model makes Flamengo PI the favourite at 47%, against 28% for a draw and 26% for 4 de Julho.
- Where and when is Flamengo PI vs 4 de Julho played?
- Flamengo PI vs 4 de Julho is played on September 9, 2026 at 10:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal Lindolfo Monteiro, in the Piauiense - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.